DECISION LEDGER
CYCLE
DECISION
OUTCOME
ATTRIBUTION
RECALIBRATION
C-0418
Raise price on SKU-2231 by 3%
Units −1.2%, margin +2.4 pts
71% price · 29% seasonality
Elasticity −0.41 → −0.38
C-0419
Shift $2.1k ad spend to marketplace
ROAS 3.1 → 3.6
64% channel · 36% promo
Channel weight +0.06
C-0420
Produce 1,800-unit batch, week 42
Fill rate 98.2%
82% demand plan
Batch rule confirmed
C-0421
Hold reorder after 3PL rate change
Storage cost −$640
90% 3PL rate
Cost floor updated
C-0422
Pause promo at margin floor
Margin +1.1 pts
58% promo · 42% mix
Promo threshold −0.5 pts
C-0423
Move 400 units to faster-selling channel
Sell-through +8 pts
Channel mix likely primary
Allocation weight +0.04
C-0424
Reduce week 43 batch after demand shift
Excess stock −12%
Demand signal · lead time
Batch floor adjusted
C-0425
Raise reorder point for top SKU
In-stock rate 96% → 98%
Forecast · supplier delay
Safety-stock rule updated
C-0426
Pause low-return creative spend
ROAS 2.4 → 2.9
Creative mix · timing
Spend threshold raised
C-0427
Shift promo to lower-margin risk set
Margin +0.8 pts
Offer depth · product mix
Promo guardrail tightened
C-0428
Advance replenishment by four days
Lost sales risk reduced
Demand uptick · lead time
Lead-time buffer revised
C-0429
Test 2% price change on selected SKUs
Units steady, margin +0.7 pts
Price change · seasonality
Elasticity estimate refined
C-0430
Rebalance marketplace budget
ROAS 3.0 → 3.3
Channel shift · demand
Channel weight +0.03
C-0431
Hold production for slower variant
Weeks of cover 9 → 7
Variant demand · inventory
Variant mix recalibrated
C-0432
Change reorder cadence for key supplier
Cash tied in stock −6%
Order frequency · lead time
Cadence rule updated
01
The category
Decides against an objective
Works within set boundaries toward a stated business target.
Measures what happened
Tracks the result of each decision and attributes it to its causes.
Recalibrates the method
Updates how the next decision is made from that evidence.
02
The architecture
Measurement
What changed after the decision.
Attribution
How much of that change the decision caused.
Recalibration
How the method changes for the next cycle.
03
First product
Sofia
Demand
variance 0.4%
Inventory
SKU-2231 · 21d cover
Production
wk 42 · 1,800u
Marketing spend
ROAS 3.6
Margin / P&L
+2.4 pts
Cash
WC −$12k
Meet Sofia →
Forecast variance
Demand forecasting · F&B producer
Margin recovered in 30 days
Inventory and margin · skincare brand
Return on Sofia fees
SKU pricing · B2B hardware distributor
WHY NOW
01
Systems of record
stored what happened.
02
Systems of intelligence
explained it.
03
Agents
can act.
04
Self-calibrating systems
learn from what happened next.
OTACTA
Otacta is early by design. We’re building it alongside a small group of investors, operators and strategic partners who want in at this stage. If that’s you, I’d like to hear from you.
Looking for Sofia? Customers start at otacta.ai/sofia.
Otacta’s Live Decision Model™: a living ledger of decisions and outcomes.
© 2026 Otacta Inc.
